For my friends and foes, I have a disclaimer about this set of postings. I am squarely in the middle politically, religiously, and socially. I have no axes to grind. However, I do heartily believe in the truth or my version of it based on research for as objective a point of view as is possible. The facts are the facts in this work you are about to read, but the opinions are mine. In short, I believe the Able-archer-83 saga was a harbinger of things to come, and we ignore the lesson as it may apply to the current escalation of belligerence occurring between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran at our peril. I pray for the leaders involved that no one inadvertently pulls the atomic trigger.
Iran has been working for twenty or more years to build a nuclear weapon and the long-range missile system to deliver the weapons upon Israel and the United States. They have successfully purchased black market uranium and the equipment—e.g. special high-tech centrifuges—to create highly radioactive U-235. The United States and several allies signed a treaty with the Islamic Republic of Iran to limit the amount, the strength, and the period of time that they would cease and desist from seeking to create nuclear WMDs. That treaty was emasculated when the United States withdrew unilaterally leaving the allies to chart their own course.
There have been provocations by Iran over decades since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The most prominent and egregious was the armed takeover of the United States Embassy in Tehran—dubbed “The Iran hostage crisis” which resulted in a humiliating diplomatic standoff between the United States and Iran between November 4, 1979 and January 20, 1981. Fifty-two American diplomats and citizens were held hostage for 444 days which made the American president look weak and foolish. This created a U.S. fixation on regime change in Iran, a mind-set that has not resonated at all well with the Iranian Supreme Leader, the government, or the people.
Of primary interest are the recent provocations—June, 2019: Iran communicated its pique and made attacks designed to bully the U.S., its allies, and the world businesses dependent on the Straits of Hormuz to transport petroleum around the world. There were three attacks on U.S. drones linked to Iran or its allied forces this month alone. In addition, the current U.S. administration and some allies blamed Iran for military attacks on two oil tankers in the straits—one Japanese and one Norwegian. The previous month, four oil tankers were damaged by what UAE officials called—by the euphemism—“sabotage” off the coast of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. During the last week in June, Iranian forces shot a $120 million unmanned U.S. surveillance drone out of the international sky near the strategically crucial Strait. At the conclusion of the last week in June, the Tehran government announced that it would enrich enough uranium to breach its 2015 agreement with the United States, Europe and other world powers. That is a direct threat to the U.S., Japan, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and all businesses which depend on safe traffic through the geostrategically important international waters of the Straits of Hormuz.
Coupled with the often confusing bellicosity of the U.S. administration and the president’s abrogation of his predecessor’s treaty, the world is now facing the daunting specter of helplessly watching steadily escalating threats of war. It is no small snit. Iran sees itself being crushed by sanctions and threatened by a nuclear bully. Accurate or not, Iran does believe it—certainly the Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei believes his own anti-Semitic, anti-American vitriol and is passionate about the Americans being aggressors who are poised to attack and to destroy the Islamic State of Iran. It is apparent that he considers pre-emptive strikes to be legitimate on his part; he has already done so. The question is how far his paranoia will push him and the world. There is a precedent that all of the leaders involved should bear in mind—the Able Archer 83 exercise of November, 1983—that brought the world far closer to a war of annihilation than any one at the time recognized.
