A Second Trump Presidential Administration

A mass deportation operation. A new Muslim ban. Tariffs on all imported goods and “freedom cities” built on federal land. Implemented, Trump’s plans would represent a dramatic government overhaul arguably more consequential than that of his first term. His presidency–especially the early days–was marked by chaos, infighting, and a wave of hastily written executive orders that were quickly overturned by the courts.

A second Trump administration would likely perpetuate policies that undermine our electoral systems; at least, that is his publicly stated intention. As outlined in Project 2025 policies, evidenced on the campaign trail–and in interviews–if Mr. Trump is reelected, his administration will likely attempt to manipulate the 2030 census to deny representation and federal resources to millions; abuse executive power to suppress voting and interfere with elections; and roll back federal progress on voting access. That is not just an attack on democracy; it is war.

A second Trump administration’s efforts to undermine the right to vote will have consequences far beyond the 2024 election. Since the census is conducted every 10 years, manipulation of the census and apportionment will deny millions of voters equal representation and fair resource allocation for at least one decade. Trump’s likely plan to add a citizenship question to exclude noncitizens from apportionment would result in significant undercounting of historically vulnerable or underrepresented populations–specifically Latino and Asian communities and those living in urban areas–which would have reverberating negative impacts on district maps and allocation of funding. Since they are known to vote Democrat more than they do Republican, it is not difficult to see why this decrease in representation is important to Donald Trump and to the political party he has come to own.

Mr. Trump has stated that whether the upcoming election may be challenged is subject to the “fairness of the election” and whether he wins. Winning equals fairness; losing equals “stolen election.”

Mr. Trump, his campaign, and his personal political party, are presenting the outlines of an imperial presidency that would reshape America and its role in the world. Consider what it would take in practical terms: To carry out a deportation operation designed to remove more than 11 million people from the country. He has indicated that he would be willing to build migrant detention camps and deploy the US military, both at the border and inland. He is also on record that he—as controller of both federal and state level governments–would allow Red States to monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans.

He intends–at his personal discretion as president–withhold funds appropriated by Congress. He would fire a US Attorney who refused carry out his order to prosecute someone, breaking with a tradition of independent law enforcement that dates from America’s founding. He is weighing pardons for every one of his supporters accused of attacking the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, more than 800 of whom have pleaded guilty or been convicted by a jury. He has stated his intention emphatically, calling the felons “hostages” and “unbelievable patriots”.

He vows not to come to the aid of an attacked ally in Europe or Asia if he felt that country was not paying enough for its own defense. Mr. Trump expresses his dislike for several federal agencies, indicating that he would gut the US civil service, deploy the National Guard to American cities as he sees fit, close the White House pandemic-preparedness office, and staff his new administration with acolytes who back his false assertion that the 2020 election was stolen—apparently a key determining factor for hiring.

With the election behind him, and never having to run again and needing to campaign, Mr. Trump will now be in full charge of the American nation and its governmental employees. Any previous agreements with the old-time GOP Republican Party stalwarts—who are now “rinos”–are over; the old guard is vanquished; and the people who remain are his people, his “yes” men (and women).

During the presidential transition period after the election, Trump has indicated his intention to enter a second term backed by government offices that are now his “policy shops” staffed by loyalists who have drawn up detailed plans in service of his agenda. The staffers may swear an oath to uphold the Constitution, as previously, but the oath that  counts in the second administration that matters is the one sworn to him. How do I know that? Mr. Trump says so in so many words. And he never lies, right?

His loyalists will be expected to support him no matter what the Constitution, the laws, the US traditions, the legislative or judicial branches, may want, which—if actually accomplished–would concentrate the powers of the state in the hands of a man whose appetite for power appears all but insatiable. There is a word for such a government and for its leader.

“I don’t think it’s a big mystery what his agenda would be,” says his ever faithful adviser Kellyanne Conway. “But I think people will be surprised at the alacrity with which he will take action.”

I, for one, will not be surprised if that happens. I can read; I can hear the man; and I am enough of a student of  history to know that this is the modus operandi of dictators for time immemorial.

Trump remains the same person with all his flaws and added power, with the same goals and grievances.

“When I first got to Washington, I knew very few people,” he says. “I had to rely on people.”

Now he is in charge.

Trump has also vowed to appoint a “real special prosecutor” to go after Biden. “I wouldn’t want to hurt Biden, I have too much respect for the office.”

Note that President Biden has not been charged with any crimes, and a House Republican effort to impeach him failed to unearth evidence of any crimes or misdemeanors, high or low.

Seconds later, though, Mr. Trump suggests Biden’s fate may be tied to an upcoming Supreme Court ruling on whether Presidents can face criminal prosecution for acts committed in office. “If they said that a President doesn’t get immunity,” says Trump, “then Biden, I am sure, will be prosecuted for all of his crimes.”

The presumption being that second administration President Trump is either exempted or self-pardoned for his felonies.

In a second term, Mr. Trump’s influence on American democracy would extend far beyond pardoning powers. Allies are laying the groundwork to restructure the presidency in line with a doctrine called the unitary executive theory, which holds that many of the constraints imposed on the White House by legislators and the courts should be swept away in favor of a more powerful Commander-in-Chief. Again, there is a name for such a Commander-in-Chief.

For our democracy that power would be nowhere more momentous than at the Department of Justice. Since the nation’s earliest days, Presidents have generally kept a respectful distance from Senate-confirmed law-enforcement officials to avoid exploiting for personal ends their enormous ability to curtail Americans’ freedoms. But Mr. Trump–burned in his first term by multiple investigations directed by his own appointees–is ever more vocal about imposing his will directly on the department and its far-flung investigators and prosecutors. By then, the world is Trump’s oyster; the nation is his to lead; the economy is his to flout. Never mind the rest of the world, Mr. Trump is safe, secure, and growing ever wealthier, enshrined in his white castle on the swamp.

By becoming president, many of Mr. Trump’s personal problems during the campaign years will evaporate. Candidate Trump faces dozens of felony charges, including for election interference, conspiracy to defraud the United States, willful retention of national-security secrets, and falsifying business records to conceal hush-money payments. The man has tried to turn legal peril into a badge of honor—doing so successfully, according to most of his base. He does have a remarkably slanted Supreme Court in his corner; so, he need not worry overmuch even before election day. After being elected, he holds the ultimate trump card (pun intended). He can simply pardon himself for all the crimes for which he gets convicted, do the same for his felon friends, and go right on to “rape the town and burn the people” as some wag once said of pirates.

Along the way—perhaps on day 2—he can fire all the US attorneys who prosecuted him, firing those who got him convicted first.

There is another possible scenario, at least no worse than the first. In the United States, we have the courts, the Constitution, and a Congress of unknown composition—but with some people of courage, one could hope—all of which have a say in whether Trump’s objectives come to pass. i.e. just because the man says it, does not mean it will happen, certainly not on the famous “day one” when so much is going to happen, the man says. Washington DC is the seat of established government with a complex machinery and a range of defenses in place already: leaks to a free press, whistle-blower protections, the oversight of inspectors general, potential legislators who vote contrary to Trumpian doctrine and dictate.

In this different scenario, the same deficiencies of temperament and judgment that hindered the autocrat in the past remain present. In this scenario, Mr. Trump would be a lame duck right off the bat. The subject has come up; Mr. Trump has announced that—he would not seek to overturn or ignore the Constitution’s prohibition on a third term [or to crown himself as “President for Life”] That sentiment from the man in charge is contrary to the suggestions of some of his more ardent supporters; so, I guess we will just have to wait and see.

In this scenario, public opinion would also be a powerful check. It has actually worked before, in the first administration. Because of a heated popular outcry, then President Trump was forced to scale back some of his most draconian first-term initiatives, including the policy of separating migrant families. That argument and change of plans took place when he still had to contemplate campaigning to win over the voting populace for a second term, however. There are no such barriers this time around; so, I have to question whether he will care about public opinion as long as it does not interfere with his hold on power.

To worriers in the news media, around the office water fountain, and around the civilized and educated world, the first scenario represents a real and alarming risk. The potential of the second scenario holding him in check from his worst characteristics does not seem to evoke much trust.

A second Trump term could bring “the end of our democracy, and the birth of a new kind of authoritarian presidential order.” says presidential historian Douglas Brinkley.